Exactly a year ago ( March, 2012), i wrote about the ‘tough times’ India is likely to pass through . Read this link http://commonmansblog.com/2012/03/22/have-we-oversold-the-india-story/
I am not an economist , so in case, my predictions go wrong ( so far, i have not been wrong on a single occasion ), i do have an option to take refuge in my lack of educational qualifications in the Economic theory unlike the proficient doctors of economics do at PM’s office , Planning Commission & the Finance ministry …..
My belief is that in 2013-14;
1. This Government will struggle to revive growth
2. Inflation ‘might’ ( 50 % chances ) come down a bit , as consumption story of India will go down
3. Manufacturing sector will slow down
4. Fiscal deficit will increase, and might create a balance of payments problem , or the Government will open more avenues for FDI ( or bend to the demands of the industrialists )
5. Tax collections will go down
6. Divestment target will not be met under the current situation unless some more ‘targets’ are divested
7. India might face a ‘security threat’ before the next elections
8. Investor confidence cannot be revived due to ‘Governance deficit’ and ‘Scamful’ Government at the centre .
Also, you can expect this Government to come out with injecting ‘Oxytocin’ in the economy as mentioned in my earlier blog ….. but this will be a short-term story, and will further dent the strength of the economy
Overall, not a good omen for job seekers and this nation . Hopefully, this will be the last budget for Congress
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
